by Good day everyone, Chris Bengel is with you again.
Don’t look now, but it’s almost this month. As the NFL draws to a close, college basketball teams are battling for spots in their upcoming conference tournaments and trying to beat their respective tickets to next month’s March Madness. From a gambling standpoint, this is where you can do a lot of research as the NCAA tournament rolls around. Class is now in session.
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Having said all of that, I’m sticking with the NBA picks tonight. Let’s get to Wednesday’s tips.
All Eastern times and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
Mavericks at Nuggets, 9 p.m. | Television: NBA.TV
Latest Odds:
Denver Nuggets -4
- key trend: The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
- The Choice: Nuggets -4 (-110)
The Nuggets continued to prove why they are at the top of the Western Conference. While the Mavericks are a more exciting team with Kyrie Irving in the group, I’m still very confident the Nuggets will pull off a respectable win if this happens.
Denver owns a deadly offense — one that goes deeper than just Nikola Jokic. Don’t get me wrong, Jokic is a big reason for the team’s success on offense, but the Nuggets have so many skilled players to fill the stats. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. both excel in the perimeter. Porter is shooting 40.3 percent from three in the season, which is good for second on the team behind only Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Murray is struggling with a knee injury and has missed the last five games. He’s listed as questionable for this competition, but even without him in the lineup, the Nuggets have won 3-2 ATS over that stretch. There’s more than enough firepower to absorb Murray’s loss when he’s unable to dress.
💰 More NBA tips
USATSI
Spurs at Hornets, 7 p.m. | TV: TNT
Latest Odds:
Under 243.5
The Choice: Below 243.5 (-110) — I know. Betting on a game between the Spurs and the Hornets seems gross. I won’t lie to you and say I disagree. However, there’s nothing gross about putting some cash in your pocket.
At first glance, these are two teams with brutal records that have traded assets as of last week’s reporting date. On closer inspection, these are two of the more stagnant offenses the NBA has to offer. The Spurs are averaging just 112.5 points per game, which is good for 23rd in the NBA. The Hornets are right behind them in 24th place with just 112.4 points per contest. Both shoot 34.1 percent or worse from the bow. All of this means that 243 points gives us a lot of wiggle room. I’m counting on the bottom here.
Key trend: The Under is 5-0 in the Hornets’ last five home games against a team with a winning percentage of less than .400.
The Choice: Kyrie Irving over 26.5 points (-113) — As I mentioned above, the nuggets have quite a few weapons. That will likely mean the Mavericks will need some big numbers from their stars to remain competitive in this competition. With that in mind, Kyrie Irving’s points prop makes a lot of sense.
Irving has at least 28 points in two of his four games with the team and is coming off a 36-point game against the Timberwolves. The veteran point guard has shot the ball really well from three, with at least three hits from long range in each of his four games with Dallas. The Nuggets will certainly do their best to slow down Luka Doncic, so I think this could lead to more opportunities for Irving to do some damage.
key trend: Irving has scored at least 28 points in two of his last four games.
