by The Sacramento Kings, who have not been in the playoffs since 2006, the NBA’s longest current drought, defeated the New Orleans Pelicans to their eighth win in their last 11 games on Monday and are now just one game behind No. 2 Memphis grizzlies.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ loss ensured a five-way tie at the bottom of the Western Conference play-in race, starting with No. 9 Utah Jazz and ending with No. 13 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Below is a comprehensive snapshot of the state of the Western Conference playoff and play-in races that come into play on Tuesday. This post will be updated daily for the remainder of the regular season or until all seeds are won.
Reminder of how the play-in tournament works: #7 plays against #8 and #9 against #10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the #7, while the loser plays against the winner of the 9-10 game for the #8.
READ: Eastern Conference playoff image
NOTE: Developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, our SportsLine model simulates the entire season 10,000 times to create the most unbiased and accurate predictions imaginable.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The nuggets would have to go into the absolute tank to blast the #1 seed. With 17 games left, they have an effective seven-game lead over the No. 2 Grizzlies with the tiebreaker secured.
- Projected Seed: 1
- Current first round encounter: open
- Tiebreakers vs. Memphis: Denver won
- Tiebreakers vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs Phoenix: Denver leads the season series with two to play 2-0
2. Memphis Grizzlies (38-25)
Memphis’ seed feels weak now that Ja Morant is out indefinitely. With 19 games to play, the Grizzlies lead the No. 3 Kings in the losing column by one and the No. 4 Suns by four. On the plus side, Memphis has the easiest remaining game schedule in the league.
- Projected Seed: 2
- Current first round encounter: Mavericks/Clippers Play-In Winner
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have taken hold
- Tiebreakers vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own a Via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs Phoenix: Grizzlies own over the department head
3. Kings of Sacramento (38-26)
The Kings have won eight of their last 11 and lie just one behind the No. 2 Grizzlies in the loss column. They also currently own the tiebreaker over Memphis with a higher conference win percentage. The Kings have a three-game lead over No. 4 suns, but there are still two direct duels left. Our SportsLine model eventually sees the Suns overtake Sacramento to become the #3.
- Projected Seed: 4
- Current first round encounter: against timber wolves
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Memphis: Kings currently own a Via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs Phoenix: Suns lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
4. Phoenix Suns (36-29)
The Suns are 3-0 since the Durant trade and have a great chance to pass the No. 3 Kings, whom they are three games behind with two head-to-heads left. The Suns lead the No. 5 Warriors with three games effective with the tiebreaker secured.
- Projected Seed: 3
- Current first round encounter: against warriors
- Tiebreakers vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own over the department head
- Tiebreakers vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have settled
- Tiebreakers vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own the winning percentage over the conference
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
5. Warrior of the Golden State (34-31)
The Warriors continue to struggle on the streets, falling to the Lakers without LeBron James on Sunday in LA. They still have five wins out of six and have a one-loss lead over the No. 6 Wolves and No. 7 Mavericks.
- Projected Seed: 5
- Current first round encounter: against suns
- Tiebreaker vs Phoenix: Suns have settled
- Tiebreakers vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Tie 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clung
6.Minnesota Timberwolves (34-32)
The Wolves are in the losing column with No. 7 Dallas and just one above the No. 8 Clippers and No. 9 Jazz. The good news is that Wolves own the tiebreaker over these two teams, effectively making the cushion two games. The race to stay above the play-in line is getting tight. SportsLine doesn’t like Minnesota’s chances of that.
- Projected Seed: 7
- Current first round encounter: at Kings
- Tiebreaker vs Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clung
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: Wolves clung
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tie 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own a via division record
- Tiebreakers vs. Lakers: Wolves clung
PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT
7. Dallas Mavericks (33-32)
The Mavericks lost six of their last 10 to drop below the play-in line, in the loss column with the No. 6 Wolves holding the tiebreaker. Dallas is just a game behind No. 5 Golden State but leads the No. 11 Lakers by just two.
- Projected Seed: 8th
- Current first round encounter: vs. Clippers (Play-In)
- Tiebreaker vs Phoenix: Suns owns the winning percentage of the conference
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Tie 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clung
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: Dallas currently holds a Via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
8 Los Angeles Clippers (34-33)
The Clippers are two behind No. 5 Warriors, one behind the No. 6 Wolves and just one behind No. 9 Pelicans, No. 10 jazz and no. 11 Lakers. Our SportsLine model likes it when they rise above the line of play.
- Projected Seed: 6
- Current first round encounter: at Mavericks (play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clung
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own a Via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clamped
- Tiebreakers vs. Lakers: Clippers clipped
9. Utah Jazz (31-34)
Utah has the same 31-34 record as the No. 10 Blazers, No. 11 Lakers, No. 12 Pelicans, and No. 13 Thunder. In tiebreak scenarios involving three or more teams, the nod goes to the team with the best head-to-head record against all teams involved, in order. At the moment, the Jazz are leading in this scenario.
- Projected Seed: lottery
- Current first round encounter: vs. Blazers (Play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz Clinted
- Tiebreakers vs. Lakers: Jazz leads 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with a play
- Tiebreaker vs Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
The Blazers are advancing into the play-in field for now due to New Orleans’ loss to Sacramento on Monday. See Utah’s section for explanation of tiebreakers involving three or more teams.
- Projected Seed: lottery
- Current first round encounter: at Jazz (play in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Lakers: Blazers currently own the winning percentage over the conference
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: thunder sounded
LOOKING INSIDE OUTSIDE
11 Los Angeles Lakers (31-34)
The Lakers have the same 31-34 record as the No. 9 jazz, no. 10 Blazers and No. 12 Pelicans. In tiebreak scenarios involving three or more teams, the nod goes to the team with the best head-to-head record against all teams involved, in order. At the moment, the Lakers are locked out of the play-in tournament.
- Projected Seed: 10
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz leads 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs Portland: Blazers currently own the winning percentage over the conference
12. New Orleans Pelicans (31-34)
After losing to the Kings on Monday, the Pelicans have the same 31-34 record as the No. 9 jazz, no. 10 Blazers, no. 11 Lakers and No. 13 thunders. See the Lakers section above for a breakdown of how tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams are sorted out.
- Projected Seed: 9
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Timberwolves: Tie 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clamped
- Tiebreakers vs. Lakers: Los Angeles leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelicans flinched
- Tiebreaker vs Portland: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
13. Oklahoma City Thunder (30-34)
The Thunder, at 30-34, are half a game down on No. 9 jazz, no. 10 Blazers, no. 11 Lakers and No. 12 Pelicans. See the Lakers section above for a breakdown of how tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams are sorted out.
- Projected Seed: lottery
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans flinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Lakers: Tie 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs Portland: OKC clung
